Location: New York, NY | Metro: Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY MSA
Based on 1% Rule: A+ (≥1.5%) | A (≥1.2%) | B (≥1.0%) | C (≥0.8%) | D (≥0.6%) | F (<0.6%)
| Unit Size | Monthly FMR |
|---|---|
| Studio | $2,280 |
| 1 Bedroom | $2,390 |
| 2 Bedrooms | $2,620 |
| 3 Bedrooms | $3,280 |
| 4 Bedrooms | $3,570 |
| 5 Bedrooms | $4,141 |
| 6 Bedrooms | $4,638 |
| 7 Bedrooms | $5,009 |
| 8 Bedrooms | $5,259 |
Zillow median home prices vs Section 8 FMR rates (Data: 2026-07-31)
| Bedrooms | Monthly FMR | Median Price | 1% Rule | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2BR | $2,620 | $398,788 | 0.66% | D |
| 3BR | $3,280 | $512,831 | 0.64% | D |
| 4BR | $3,570 | $678,618 | 0.53% | F |
| 5BR | $4,141 | $905,895 | 0.46% | F |
U.S. Census Bureau data (2024)
The analysis of ZIP code 12564, located in Pawling, NY, within the New York, NY HUD Metro FMR Area, reveals a mixed outlook for potential real estate investments.
The rent math does not work favorably. The Fair Market Rent (FMR) set at $2210 for fiscal year 2024 is significantly higher than the market rent reported by the Census ACS, which stands at $1,502. This discrepancy suggests that landlords might struggle to find tenants willing to pay the FMR, as it exceeds the current market rate by over $700 per month.
Acquisition in this area is somewhat affordable, with a median home value of $503,005. However, the lack of data on days on market (DOM) and the percentage of homes needing price cuts indicates limited insight into how quickly properties sell and at what price adjustments. This could pose challenges for new investors trying to gauge the local market's liquidity and pricing flexibility.
Tenant demand is present but not overwhelming. With a total population of 7,734, approximately 23.9% of residents are renters. This translates to roughly 1,850 rental units needed, suggesting a stable but not highly competitive market for tenants.
Verdict: Investing in ZIP 12564 is feasible but requires careful consideration. The rent math does not align well with market realities, potentially leading to vacancies. Acquisition costs are reasonable, yet the absence of detailed sales data makes it hard to predict property turnover times and price adjustments. Tenant demand exists, though it is moderate. Landlords should focus on properties that can be rented at or slightly above the current market rate to ensure occupancy and profitability.
Data Sources: FMR data from HUD (2027). Median home prices from Zillow (2026-07-31). Demographics from U.S. Census (2024).
About FMR: Fair Market Rent (FMR) is used to determine payment standards for the Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher program, initial renewal rents for some expiring project-based Section 8 contracts, and rent ceilings for HOME Investment Partnerships.