Location: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC | Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD HUD Metro FMR Area
Based on 1% Rule: A+ (≥1.5%) | A (≥1.2%) | B (≥1.0%) | C (≥0.8%) | D (≥0.6%) | F (<0.6%)
| Unit Size | Monthly FMR |
|---|---|
| Studio | $1,870 |
| 1 Bedroom | $1,950 |
| 2 Bedrooms | $2,160 |
| 3 Bedrooms | $2,750 |
| 4 Bedrooms | $3,240 |
| 5 Bedrooms | $3,758 |
| 6 Bedrooms | $4,209 |
| 7 Bedrooms | $4,546 |
| 8 Bedrooms | $4,773 |
Zillow median home prices vs Section 8 FMR rates (Data: 2026-07-31)
| Bedrooms | Monthly FMR | Median Price | 1% Rule | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | $1,950 | $217,443 | 0.9% | C |
| 2BR | $2,160 | $270,516 | 0.8% | D |
| 3BR | $2,750 | $510,604 | 0.54% | F |
| 4BR | $3,240 | $784,954 | 0.41% | F |
| 5BR | $3,758 | $959,794 | 0.39% | F |
U.S. Census Bureau data (2024)
The Section 8 cap rate analysis for ZIP code 22309 in Mount Vernon, VA, provides valuable insights into investment potential. To begin, we must calculate the implied gross yield for both the Fair Market Rent (FMR) and the market rent scenarios.
Using the annualized 2BR FMR of $1850 for FY 2024, the annual rental income would be $22,200 ($1850 x 12 months). Given the median home value of $592,025, the implied gross yield for the FMR scenario is approximately 3.75%. This calculation is derived from dividing the annual rental income by the median home value: $22,200 / $592,025 = 0.0375 or 3.75%.
On the other hand, using the ZORI market rent figure of $2,357 per month, the annual rental income would be $28,284 ($2,357 x 12 months). The implied gross yield for this scenario is about 4.78%, calculated as $28,284 / $592,025 = 0.0478 or 4.78%.
To determine which scenario is more realistic, consider the local rental market conditions. With a 35.6% renter density, it suggests that a significant portion of the population is already renting, which could indicate a strong demand for rental properties. Additionally, the 15-day Days on Market (DOM) statistic implies that rental units are being filled quickly, suggesting a competitive market where tenants might prefer higher-quality rentals over subsidized housing.
Given these factors, the market rent scenario with an implied gross yield of 4.78% is likely more reflective of the actual rental environment in ZIP 22309. However, it's important to note that the FMR scenario, while offering a lower gross yield at 3.75%, ensures a stable and consistent income stream due to the government backing of Section 8 vouchers. For investors looking for steady returns with minimal risk, the FMR scenario remains attractive despite the lower yield.
In conclusion, while both scenarios provide useful benchmarks, the higher implied gross yield from the market rent scenario aligns better with the current market dynamics of ZIP 22309. Yet, the reliability of the FMR scenario should not be overlooked, especially for those prioritizing security over yield.
Data Sources: FMR data from HUD (2027). Median home prices from Zillow (2026-07-31). Demographics from U.S. Census (2024).
About FMR: Fair Market Rent (FMR) is used to determine payment standards for the Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher program, initial renewal rents for some expiring project-based Section 8 contracts, and rent ceilings for HOME Investment Partnerships.