Location: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA
Based on 1% Rule: A+ (≥1.5%) | A (≥1.2%) | B (≥1.0%) | C (≥0.8%) | D (≥0.6%) | F (<0.6%)
| Unit Size | Monthly FMR |
|---|---|
| Studio | $2,320 |
| 1 Bedroom | $2,390 |
| 2 Bedrooms | $2,780 |
| 3 Bedrooms | $3,550 |
| 4 Bedrooms | $4,320 |
| 5 Bedrooms | $5,011 |
| 6 Bedrooms | $5,612 |
| 7 Bedrooms | $6,061 |
| 8 Bedrooms | $6,364 |
Zillow median home prices vs Section 8 FMR rates (Data: 2026-08-31)
| Bedrooms | Monthly FMR | Median Price | 1% Rule | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2BR | $2,780 | $319,460 | 0.87% | C |
| 3BR | $3,550 | $351,211 | 1.01% | B |
| 4BR | $4,320 | $456,630 | 0.95% | C |
| 5BR | $5,011 | $572,369 | 0.88% | C |
U.S. Census Bureau data (2024)
The dynamics of the ZIP 34638 real estate market, centered around Land O Lakes, FL, reveal a scenario where demand closely follows supply, but with indications that it may soon surpass it. The Fair Market Rent (FMR) for ZIP 34638 in fiscal year 2024 is set at $2,670, while the actual market rent, as measured by Zillow's ZORI index, stands at $2,192. This discrepancy suggests that the rental market is currently below the fair market level, which could be due to several factors including an oversupply of rental units or lower-than-average income levels.
The low 0.3% price-cut share indicates that sellers are generally not feeling pressured to reduce their asking prices, a sign that buyers are willing to pay the listed amounts. Additionally, the 49-day Days on Market (DOM) figure shows that properties are selling relatively quickly, indicating a healthy level of buyer interest. The median home value in the area is $424,269, which aligns with the FMR suggesting that homeownership remains accessible for many residents.
The 16.4% renter share highlights a significant portion of the population who prefer or need to rent rather than buy. This high percentage of renters can exert long-term housing pressure on the market, driving up rental rates as demand increases. Over time, this trend could lead to a tighter rental market, where landlords might have more leverage to increase rents closer to the FMR.
In summary, ZIP 34638 presents a balanced market with signs of demand catching up to supply. The rental market is currently undervalued relative to the FMR, but with a substantial renter population, there is potential for growth in rental prices. Homeowners and small-portfolio investors should monitor these trends closely to make informed decisions about property investments and management strategies.
Data Sources: FMR data from HUD (2027). Median home prices from Zillow (2026-08-31). Demographics from U.S. Census (2024).
About FMR: Fair Market Rent (FMR) is used to determine payment standards for the Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher program, initial renewal rents for some expiring project-based Section 8 contracts, and rent ceilings for HOME Investment Partnerships.