Location: Waco, TX | Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX HUD Metro FMR Area
Based on 1% Rule: A+ (≥1.5%) | A (≥1.2%) | B (≥1.0%) | C (≥0.8%) | D (≥0.6%) | F (<0.6%)
| Unit Size | Monthly FMR |
|---|---|
| Studio | $1,030 |
| 1 Bedroom | $1,170 |
| 2 Bedrooms | $1,480 |
| 3 Bedrooms | $1,930 |
| 4 Bedrooms | $1,950 |
| 5 Bedrooms | $2,262 |
| 6 Bedrooms | $2,533 |
| 7 Bedrooms | $2,736 |
| 8 Bedrooms | $2,873 |
Zillow median home prices vs Section 8 FMR rates (Data: 2026-08-31)
| Bedrooms | Monthly FMR | Median Price | 1% Rule | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2BR | $1,480 | $260,149 | 0.57% | F |
| 3BR | $1,930 | $416,193 | 0.46% | F |
| 4BR | $1,950 | $625,309 | 0.31% | F |
U.S. Census Bureau data (2024)
The real estate market in ZIP 76638 (Crawford, TX) presents a mixed but generally positive outlook for landlords and small-portfolio investors. The median home value stands at $499,736, indicating a robust residential market. However, the absence of data on the percentage of listings that have been reduced and the median days on market (DOM) suggests stability rather than rapid price adjustments. This implies that sellers and buyers are likely operating within a well-defined price range, which could support steady pricing power for landlords over the next 12-24 months.
On the rental side, the Fair Market Rent (FMR) for ZIP 76638 is set at $1,520 for fiscal year 2024, whereas the current market rent is estimated at $1,083 based on Census ACS data. This gap signals potential upward pressure on rental rates, particularly as the FMR is often used as a benchmark for rental pricing. Landlords may find opportunities to adjust their rental prices closer to the FMR without losing tenants, given the current lower market rate.
For long-term hold investors, the setup points toward a realistic appreciation thesis. With the median home value already established at a relatively high level and the potential for rental rates to increase, Crawford, TX, appears poised for continued growth. As rental demand aligns more closely with the FMR, this could drive up property values due to increased investor interest and potential capital gains.
However, it's important to note that the lack of specific data on listing reductions and DOM could also indicate a less dynamic market. In such a scenario, appreciation might be more modest, driven by gradual increases in demand rather than speculative bubbles. Long-term investors should consider diversifying their portfolios to mitigate risks associated with localized market conditions.
In summary, the current median home value, the potential for rental rate increases, and the general stability implied by the available data suggest that Crawford, TX, offers a solid investment opportunity for landlords and small-portfolio investors. While significant appreciation is possible, it is more likely to be a steady, long-term process rather than a short-term surge.
Data Sources: FMR data from HUD (2027). Median home prices from Zillow (2026-08-31). Demographics from U.S. Census (2024).
About FMR: Fair Market Rent (FMR) is used to determine payment standards for the Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher program, initial renewal rents for some expiring project-based Section 8 contracts, and rent ceilings for HOME Investment Partnerships.