Section 8 Fair Market Rent (FMR) for ZIP 85138 - 2027

Investment Score for ZIP 85138

Based on 1% Rule: A+ (≥1.5%) | A (≥1.2%) | B (≥1.0%) | C (≥0.8%) | D (≥0.6%) | F (<0.6%)

FY 2027 Fair Market Rent Rates

Unit Size	Monthly FMR
Studio	$1,680
1 Bedroom	$1,810
2 Bedrooms	$2,100
3 Bedrooms	$2,770
4 Bedrooms	$3,070
5 Bedrooms	$3,561
6 Bedrooms	$3,988
7 Bedrooms	$4,307
8 Bedrooms	$4,522

Investment Analysis by Bedroom Size

Zillow median home prices vs Section 8 FMR rates (Data: 2026-08-31)

Bedrooms	Monthly FMR	Median Price	1% Rule	Grade
2BR	$2,100	$338,429	0.62%	D
3BR	$2,770	$315,321	0.88%	C
4BR	$3,070	$351,756	0.87%	C
5BR	$3,561	$408,026	0.87%	C

Demographics & Housing Statistics

U.S. Census Bureau data (2024)

### Market Analysis for ZIP Code 85138 (Maricopa, AZ) #### Section 8 Voucher Dynamics The Fair Market Rent (FMR) for Maricopa, AZ (ZIP 85138) in 2026 is set at $2300 for a two-bedroom unit. This figure represents 28.8% of the median household income in the area, which stands at $95,867. The FMRs for other bedroom types are as follows: - 0BR: $1820 - 1BR: $1980 - 3BR: $3070 - 4BR: $3400 To understand how these FMRs compare to actual rents, we need to consider the price-to-FMR ratio. For a two-bedroom unit, the Zillow median price is $344,595, which translates to a price-to-FMR ratio of 12.5x. This high ratio suggests that actual rental prices in the market are significantly higher than the FMRs. For voucher holders, this means that they will face significant constraints in finding suitable housing. The FMRs are likely to be below the market rates, making it challenging for them to secure properties without landlords accepting the voucher at a higher rate. Additionally, the limited number of units available at or below FMR levels could create a competitive environment for voucher holders. #### Affordability & Renter Profile Maricopa has a population of 55,260, with 17.7% of residents being renters. The occupancy rate is relatively high at 89.9%, indicating a strong demand for housing in the area. Given the median household income of $95,867, the renter profile is likely to include individuals and families who are either middle-class or have slightly lower incomes but still above the national average. The affordability of housing is a concern due to the high price-to-FMR ratio. For instance, a two-bedroom unit priced at $344,595 would cost approximately $2872 per month if financed through a typical mortgage (assuming a 4.5% interest rate and a 30-year term). This amount is well above the FMR of $2300, making it difficult for many renters to find affordable housing. Given the high occupancy rate and the limited percentage of renters, it appears that the market is relatively tight, with a strong demand for rental units. However, the high prices suggest that there might be some oversupply of higher-priced units that do not align with the FMR guidelines. #### Investor Angle From an investor perspective, the key question is whether the ZIP code can provide cash flow-positive opportunities at the FMR levels. With the FMR for a two-bedroom unit set at $2300, and the actual market price being much higher, it is unlikely that investors will find many opportunities to purchase properties at or near the FMR level. However, if an investor can acquire a property at or below the FMR, the potential for positive cash flow exists. For example, a two-bedroom unit at the FMR would generate $2300 in monthly rent. If the acquisition cost is around $230,000 (which is below the Zillow median), the monthly mortgage payment would be approximately $1150 (again, assuming a 4.5% interest rate and a 30-year term). This leaves a potential monthly cash flow of $1150 before accounting for maintenance, taxes, and insurance. The investment grade for this ZIP code would be moderate to low, given the high price-to-FMR ratio and the challenges in finding properties at or below FMR levels. Investors would need to carefully evaluate the local market conditions and the willingness of landlords to accept vouchers at FMR rates. #### Specific Actionable Insights 1. **Target Lower-Priced Units**: Investors should focus on acquiring properties that are priced closer to the FMR levels. For a two-bedroom unit, targeting properties under $250,000 would make it easier to achieve positive cash flow when renting at the FMR of $2300. This strategy requires identifying undervalued properties or negotiating aggressively with sellers. 2. **Consider Multi-Family Properties**: Single-family homes are likely to be overpriced relative to FMRs. Multi-family properties, such as duplexes or small apartment complexes, might offer better value. These properties can be rented out at different rates, allowing flexibility in pricing and potentially attracting both voucher holders and non-voucher tenants. 3. **Engage with Local Landlords**: Networking with local landlords and understanding their policies regarding Section 8 vouchers can provide valuable insights. Some landlords might be willing to accept vouchers at a higher rate, which could improve the investment potential. Engaging with local real estate associations and attending community meetings can help build these relationships. #### Bottom Line Based on the analysis, the recommendation for Section 8-focused investors in ZIP 85138 is to **Skip** this market. The high price-to-FMR ratio and the limited availability of properties at or below FMR levels make it challenging to achieve positive cash flow. Additionally, the tight market conditions and high occupancy rates suggest that finding undervalued properties will be difficult. While there are opportunities to engage with local landlords and potentially negotiate higher rates, the overall market dynamics do not favor investors looking to leverage Section 8 vouchers effectively.

Data Sources: FMR data from HUD (2027). Median home prices from Zillow (2026-08-31). Demographics from U.S. Census (2024).

About FMR: Fair Market Rent (FMR) is used to determine payment standards for the Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher program, initial renewal rents for some expiring project-based Section 8 contracts, and rent ceilings for HOME Investment Partnerships.