Section 8 Fair Market Rent (FMR) for ZIP 85209 - 2027

Investment Score for ZIP 85209

Based on 1% Rule: A+ (≥1.5%) | A (≥1.2%) | B (≥1.0%) | C (≥0.8%) | D (≥0.6%) | F (<0.6%)

FY 2027 Fair Market Rent Rates

Unit Size	Monthly FMR
Studio	$1,550
1 Bedroom	$1,660
2 Bedrooms	$1,930
3 Bedrooms	$2,550
4 Bedrooms	$2,820
5 Bedrooms	$3,271
6 Bedrooms	$3,664
7 Bedrooms	$3,957
8 Bedrooms	$4,155

Investment Analysis by Bedroom Size

Zillow median home prices vs Section 8 FMR rates (Data: 2026-08-31)

Bedrooms	Monthly FMR	Median Price	1% Rule	Grade
1BR	$1,660	$251,908	0.66%	D
2BR	$1,930	$372,941	0.52%	F
3BR	$2,550	$426,493	0.6%	F
4BR	$2,820	$522,313	0.54%	F
5BR	$3,271	$644,583	0.51%	F

Demographics & Housing Statistics

U.S. Census Bureau data (2024)

### Market Analysis for ZIP Code 85209 (Mesa, AZ) #### Section 8 Voucher Dynamics In ZIP code 85209, the Fair Market Rent (FMR) for a two-bedroom apartment is set at $2,070 per month, which represents 29.4% of the median household income of $84,432. However, the actual rental prices in this area are significantly higher. The Zillow median price for a two-bedroom home in this ZIP is $378,741, indicating that the price-to-FMR ratio is approximately 15.2 times. This means that the typical rent for a two-bedroom unit would be around $32,544 annually if it were priced similarly to the median home value. Given these figures, the FMR is considerably lower than what most landlords might charge for a two-bedroom unit. For instance, the FMR for a two-bedroom unit is $2,070, while the actual rent could be closer to $378,741/15.2 ≈ $24,917 annually, or roughly $2,077 per month. Therefore, Section 8 voucher holders face significant constraints in finding affordable housing. They must locate units where the landlord is willing to accept the voucher amount, which is often below market rates. #### Affordability & Renter Profile The renter population in ZIP 85209 constitutes 26.9% of the total population of 43,150, meaning there are approximately 11,600 renters in this area. With an occupancy rate of 82.7%, the market is relatively tight, suggesting that there is a high demand for rental properties. Given the high price-to-FMR ratio, it is likely that many renters in this area are paying well above the FMR, particularly those who do not qualify for Section 8 vouchers. The median household income of $84,432 indicates that the majority of residents have a moderate to high income level. However, the 29.4% of median income allocated to the FMR for a two-bedroom unit suggests that even those who qualify for Section 8 assistance may find it challenging to afford housing in this market. This tight market condition implies that there is limited supply relative to demand, making it difficult for low-income renters to secure affordable housing. #### Investor Angle From an investor perspective, the ZIP code 85209 presents both opportunities and challenges. The FMR for a two-bedroom unit is $2,070, but the actual rent that can be charged is much higher, around $2,077 per month based on the price-to-FMR ratio. This means that investors who can secure properties at or near the FMR level can potentially achieve positive cash flow. However, the challenge lies in finding landlords willing to accept the FMR rates. If an investor can acquire a property and lease it out at the FMR, they would still need to consider other costs such as maintenance, property taxes, and insurance. Assuming a conservative estimate of 30% of the rent going towards these additional expenses, the net monthly income would be around $1,453 ($2,070 * 0.7). This would make the investment cash-flow positive, especially if the purchase price is aligned with the FMR. The investment grade for this ZIP code would be considered moderate due to the tight market conditions and the high price-to-FMR ratio. While there is potential for good returns, the risk is also elevated because of the difficulty in securing tenants willing to pay only the FMR. #### Specific Actionable Insights 1. **Focus on Properties Below FMR**: Investors should look for properties that are priced below the FMR to ensure a higher likelihood of positive cash flow. For example, a two-bedroom property priced at $1,800 per month would allow for a net income of approximately $1,260 per month after accounting for 30% in additional expenses. 2. **Consider Multi-Family Units**: Given the high FMR for larger units, multi-family properties might offer better investment opportunities. A three-bedroom unit priced at $2,760 per month would provide a net income of about $1,932 per month, which is more substantial than the two-bedroom scenario. 3. **Engage with Local Landlords**: Building relationships with local landlords who are familiar with the Section 8 program can help secure properties at or near the FMR. Additionally, understanding the local rental market dynamics and negotiating with landlords can be crucial in making the investment viable. #### Bottom Line For Section 8-focused investors, the recommendation for ZIP code 85209 is to **Hold**. While there is potential for positive cash flow, the high price-to-FMR ratio and tight market conditions make it challenging to find properties that are truly affordable under the Section 8 program. Investors should proceed cautiously and focus on properties that are priced below the FMR to ensure profitability. Engaging with local landlords and understanding the nuances of the rental market will be key to success in this area.

Data Sources: FMR data from HUD (2027). Median home prices from Zillow (2026-08-31). Demographics from U.S. Census (2024).

About FMR: Fair Market Rent (FMR) is used to determine payment standards for the Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher program, initial renewal rents for some expiring project-based Section 8 contracts, and rent ceilings for HOME Investment Partnerships.