Section 8 Fair Market Rent (FMR) for ZIP 85212 - 2027

Investment Score for ZIP 85212

Based on 1% Rule: A+ (≥1.5%) | A (≥1.2%) | B (≥1.0%) | C (≥0.8%) | D (≥0.6%) | F (<0.6%)

FY 2027 Fair Market Rent Rates

Unit Size	Monthly FMR
Studio	$1,800
1 Bedroom	$1,930
2 Bedrooms	$2,240
3 Bedrooms	$2,950
4 Bedrooms	$3,280
5 Bedrooms	$3,805
6 Bedrooms	$4,262
7 Bedrooms	$4,603
8 Bedrooms	$4,833

Investment Analysis by Bedroom Size

Zillow median home prices vs Section 8 FMR rates (Data: 2026-08-31)

Bedrooms	Monthly FMR	Median Price	1% Rule	Grade
2BR	$2,240	$497,189	0.45%	F
3BR	$2,950	$480,500	0.61%	D
4BR	$3,280	$566,411	0.58%	F
5BR	$3,805	$674,250	0.56%	F

Demographics & Housing Statistics

U.S. Census Bureau data (2024)

### Market Analysis for ZIP Code 85212 (Mesa, AZ) #### Section 8 Voucher Dynamics The Fair Market Rent (FMR) for ZIP code 85212 is set by HUD for 2026. For a two-bedroom unit, the FMR is $2,360 per month. This represents 22.5% of the median household income in Mesa, which is $125,902. The actual rent for a two-bedroom unit, however, is significantly higher, with Zillow reporting a median price of $505,525. This translates to a price-to-FMR ratio of 17.9x, indicating that actual rental prices far exceed the FMR. Voucher holders face significant constraints in finding affordable housing within their budget. A two-bedroom unit priced at $505,525 would be well beyond the FMR limit, making it difficult for Section 8 tenants to secure such units without additional subsidies or cost-sharing arrangements. #### Affordability & Renter Profile ZIP code 85212 has a relatively low renter percentage of 15.9%, suggesting that the majority of residents are homeowners. With a high occupancy rate of 95.6%, the market appears to be quite tight, especially for renters. Given the median household income of $125,902, most residents can afford to own homes rather than rent. However, the 15.9% of renters likely consist of lower-income individuals who may rely on assistance programs like Section 8. The tight rental market combined with the high price-to-FMR ratio indicates that there is limited supply of affordable rental units for those using vouchers. This could lead to increased competition among voucher holders and potentially higher wait times for securing housing. #### Investor Angle From an investor perspective, the ZIP code 85212 presents a challenging scenario when considering cash flow based solely on FMR. The FMR for a two-bedroom unit is $2,360, but the actual median rental price is $505,525, which is 17.9 times the FMR. This suggests that properties rented at FMR levels would struggle to compete with market rates and may not attract many tenants. To determine the investment grade, we need to consider the potential for cash flow and the demand for Section 8 units. Given the high price-to-FMR ratio and the tight rental market, it is unlikely that investors would find a positive cash flow by renting exclusively to voucher holders. The demand for affordable housing is present, but the supply is limited, and the market rates are much higher than the FMR. #### Specific Actionable Insights 1. **Target Lower-Income Housing**: Investors should focus on developing or acquiring properties specifically designed for lower-income residents. This includes ensuring that the rental prices align closely with the FMR to cater to voucher holders effectively. For instance, a two-bedroom unit priced at $2,360 would be more attractive to Section 8 tenants. 2. **Consider Mixed-Income Developments**: To balance the tight rental market and the limited supply of affordable units, mixed-income developments could be a viable strategy. These developments offer a mix of market-rate and subsidized units, allowing investors to generate revenue from higher-paying tenants while still providing affordable options for voucher holders. #### Bottom Line Given the high price-to-FMR ratio and the tight rental market, the recommendation for Section 8-focused investors is to **Skip** this ZIP code. The actual rental prices far exceed the FMR, making it difficult to find tenants who can use their vouchers to cover the costs. Additionally, the limited supply of affordable units and the high competition among renters suggest that this area may not be conducive to positive cash flow investments targeting Section 8 voucher holders. ### Summary In ZIP code 85212, the rental market is tight with a high occupancy rate and limited supply of affordable units. The actual rental prices are significantly higher than the FMR, posing challenges for voucher holders. From an investment standpoint, focusing on this ZIP code for Section 8 properties is not recommended due to the high price-to-FMR ratio and the difficulty in attracting tenants within the voucher limits.

Data Sources: FMR data from HUD (2027). Median home prices from Zillow (2026-08-31). Demographics from U.S. Census (2024).

About FMR: Fair Market Rent (FMR) is used to determine payment standards for the Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher program, initial renewal rents for some expiring project-based Section 8 contracts, and rent ceilings for HOME Investment Partnerships.