Location: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ | Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ MSA
Based on 1% Rule: A+ (≥1.5%) | A (≥1.2%) | B (≥1.0%) | C (≥0.8%) | D (≥0.6%) | F (<0.6%)
| Unit Size | Monthly FMR |
|---|---|
| Studio | $1,930 |
| 1 Bedroom | $2,070 |
| 2 Bedrooms | $2,410 |
| 3 Bedrooms | $3,180 |
| 4 Bedrooms | $3,530 |
| 5 Bedrooms | $4,095 |
| 6 Bedrooms | $4,586 |
| 7 Bedrooms | $4,953 |
| 8 Bedrooms | $5,201 |
Zillow median home prices vs Section 8 FMR rates (Data: 2026-08-31)
| Bedrooms | Monthly FMR | Median Price | 1% Rule | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2BR | $2,410 | $417,769 | 0.58% | F |
| 3BR | $3,180 | $416,756 | 0.76% | D |
| 4BR | $3,530 | $464,067 | 0.76% | D |
| 5BR | $4,095 | $497,593 | 0.82% | C |
U.S. Census Bureau data (2024)
The real estate landscape in ZIP 85387 (Surprise, AZ) presents a nuanced picture for landlords and small-portfolio investors. With a median home value of $457,240, the area has established itself as a middle-tier market. The fact that only 0.4% of listings have reduced their prices signals a strong seller's market where property values are holding steady, if not appreciating slightly. This is further supported by the 47-day median days on market (DOM), which indicates a brisk pace of sales, suggesting that homes are selling close to asking price.
On the rental side, the Forward Moving Rent (FMR) for ZIP 85387 is projected at $2,170 for fiscal year 2024, slightly below the current market rate of $2,184 (ZORI). This suggests that while there is a minor downward pressure on rents, the gap between FMR and ZORI is narrow, indicating a relatively stable rental market. Landlords can expect modest rent increases or maintenance of current rates without significant risk of vacancy.
For long-term investors, the setup in Surprise, AZ, implies a conservative appreciation thesis. The low percentage of price reductions and quick DOM suggest that the market is resilient and not prone to sudden downturns. However, the modest difference between FMR and ZORI, along with the current median home value, points towards a slow but steady growth pattern. Investors should anticipate an environment where capital appreciation will be gradual rather than explosive.
The data collectively suggest that Surprise, AZ, is a market where maintaining or slightly increasing property values and rental rates is feasible. Landlords and investors can leverage this stability to ensure consistent returns on investment. While the potential for rapid appreciation is limited, the combination of a robust seller's market and stable rental dynamics provides a solid foundation for long-term portfolio growth.
Data Sources: FMR data from HUD (2027). Median home prices from Zillow (2026-08-31). Demographics from U.S. Census (2024).
About FMR: Fair Market Rent (FMR) is used to determine payment standards for the Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher program, initial renewal rents for some expiring project-based Section 8 contracts, and rent ceilings for HOME Investment Partnerships.