Location: Santa Cruz County, AZ | Metro: Santa Cruz County, AZ
Based on 1% Rule: A+ (≥1.5%) | A (≥1.2%) | B (≥1.0%) | C (≥0.8%) | D (≥0.6%) | F (<0.6%)
| Unit Size | Monthly FMR |
|---|---|
| Studio | $710 |
| 1 Bedroom | $780 |
| 2 Bedrooms | $1,020 |
| 3 Bedrooms | $1,420 |
| 4 Bedrooms | $1,460 |
| 5 Bedrooms | $1,694 |
| 6 Bedrooms | $1,897 |
| 7 Bedrooms | $2,049 |
| 8 Bedrooms | $2,151 |
Zillow median home prices vs Section 8 FMR rates (Data: 2026-08-31)
| Bedrooms | Monthly FMR | Median Price | 1% Rule | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2BR | $1,020 | $165,430 | 0.62% | D |
| 3BR | $1,420 | $213,125 | 0.67% | D |
| 4BR | $1,460 | $300,997 | 0.49% | F |
| 5BR | $1,694 | $388,241 | 0.44% | F |
U.S. Census Bureau data (2024)
The ZIP code 85621 encompasses a portion of Nogales, Arizona, characterized by a moderate-sized population of 21,593 residents. The area has a significant rental market, with 50.2% of its inhabitants being renters. This demographic leans towards a middle-income bracket, as evidenced by the median household income of $43,464. The median home value in this region stands at $220,969, indicating a relatively affordable housing market compared to larger urban centers.
In terms of rental economics, the Fair Market Rent (FMR) for the metro area for fiscal year 2026 is set at $1,050. However, the actual market rent, according to Census ACS data, is significantly lower at $745. This disparity suggests a potential opportunity for landlords who can leverage the government's higher subsidy rates to achieve better returns on their investment properties. The gap between the FMR and the market rent indicates that Section 8 vouchers can cover a substantial portion of the rent, making it easier for landlords to find tenants and maintain occupancy levels.
Given these conditions, ZIP 85621 would suit both hands-off voucher operators and hands-on value-add buyers. For hands-off operators, the consistent demand for rental units and the likelihood of stable cash flow due to the Section 8 program make this area attractive. On the other hand, value-add buyers could find opportunities to improve properties and increase rents closer to the FMR, thereby maximizing their investment potential. The combination of a high percentage of renters and a lower market rent compared to the FMR provides a favorable environment for both types of investors.
Data Sources: FMR data from HUD (2027). Median home prices from Zillow (2026-08-31). Demographics from U.S. Census (2024).
About FMR: Fair Market Rent (FMR) is used to determine payment standards for the Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher program, initial renewal rents for some expiring project-based Section 8 contracts, and rent ceilings for HOME Investment Partnerships.