Location: Tucson, AZ | Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ MSA
Based on 1% Rule: A+ (≥1.5%) | A (≥1.2%) | B (≥1.0%) | C (≥0.8%) | D (≥0.6%) | F (<0.6%)
| Unit Size | Monthly FMR |
|---|---|
| Studio | $1,470 |
| 1 Bedroom | $1,640 |
| 2 Bedrooms | $2,100 |
| 3 Bedrooms | $2,900 |
| 4 Bedrooms | $3,290 |
| 5 Bedrooms | $3,816 |
| 6 Bedrooms | $4,274 |
| 7 Bedrooms | $4,616 |
| 8 Bedrooms | $4,847 |
Zillow median home prices vs Section 8 FMR rates (Data: 2026-08-31)
| Bedrooms | Monthly FMR | Median Price | 1% Rule | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2BR | $2,100 | $484,237 | 0.43% | F |
| 3BR | $2,900 | $517,273 | 0.56% | F |
| 4BR | $3,290 | $589,383 | 0.56% | F |
| 5BR | $3,816 | $612,630 | 0.62% | D |
U.S. Census Bureau data (2024)
ZIP 85658, located in Marana, Arizona, within the Tucson, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), presents a compelling opportunity for inclusion in a Section 8 portfolio strategy. This ZIP code serves best as an appreciation play due to several key metrics.
The Federal Market Rent (FMR) for ZIP 85658 in fiscal year 2024 is set at $1760, which is significantly below the current market rent of $2200. This creates a potential for future appreciation as market rents are expected to continue rising, driven by demand and limited supply. The difference between the FMR and market rent stands at $440, indicating that properties in this area could see an increase in rental income over time, especially as the market adjusts and Section 8 rates are updated.
A further indication of appreciation potential is the 62-day Days on Market (DOM) figure. This metric suggests that properties are selling relatively quickly, which is a positive sign for both appreciation and liquidity. A lower DOM typically points to a robust local economy and strong demand for housing, factors that contribute to property value growth.
The 0.3% price-cut share also supports the appreciation play thesis. This low percentage indicates that few sellers are willing to reduce their asking prices, suggesting a seller's market where values are likely to rise rather than fall. In such a market, the risk of depreciation is minimal, making it a safer bet for long-term investment.
While the median home value in ZIP 85658 is high at $538,317, this does not necessarily disqualify it from being part of an appreciation-focused strategy. High-value areas often experience greater appreciation rates due to the premium placed on location, amenities, and quality of life.
However, it is important to note that the 14.3% renter share and median income of $123,415 do not make this a prime candidate for a diversification strategy. These figures suggest that the majority of residents are homeowners, and while the income level is healthy, it does not indicate a broad mix of tenants or rental demand that would benefit a diversified portfolio.
In conclusion, ZIP 85658 offers a solid foundation for an appreciation play within a Section 8 portfolio. The combination of a favorable FMR-to-market rent spread, quick sales cycles, and a stable, potentially growing housing market makes it a strategic choice for investors looking to capitalize on future value increases.
Data Sources: FMR data from HUD (2027). Median home prices from Zillow (2026-08-31). Demographics from U.S. Census (2024).
About FMR: Fair Market Rent (FMR) is used to determine payment standards for the Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher program, initial renewal rents for some expiring project-based Section 8 contracts, and rent ceilings for HOME Investment Partnerships.