Location: Oakland-Fremont, CA | Metro: Oakland-Fremont, CA HUD Metro FMR Area
Based on 1% Rule: A+ (≥1.5%) | A (≥1.2%) | B (≥1.0%) | C (≥0.8%) | D (≥0.6%) | F (<0.6%)
| Unit Size | Monthly FMR |
|---|---|
| Studio | $1,930 |
| 1 Bedroom | $2,150 |
| 2 Bedrooms | $2,630 |
| 3 Bedrooms | $3,360 |
| 4 Bedrooms | $3,980 |
| 5 Bedrooms | $4,617 |
| 6 Bedrooms | $5,171 |
| 7 Bedrooms | $5,585 |
| 8 Bedrooms | $5,864 |
Zillow median home prices vs Section 8 FMR rates (Data: 2026-07-31)
| Bedrooms | Monthly FMR | Median Price | 1% Rule | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | $2,150 | $330,573 | 0.65% | D |
| 2BR | $2,630 | $361,808 | 0.73% | D |
| 3BR | $3,360 | $518,973 | 0.65% | D |
| 4BR | $3,980 | $606,002 | 0.66% | D |
| 5BR | $4,617 | $728,153 | 0.63% | D |
U.S. Census Bureau data (2024)
Antioch, specifically ZIP code 94509, serves as the heart of Eastern Contra Costa County, offering a suburban environment that has historically drawn families seeking relative affordability compared to core Bay Area cities. This neighborhood maintains a diverse housing stock ranging from older, smaller single-family homes to new construction, creating a varied landscape for investors. The local economy benefits from regional connectivity, with major employers such as the Kaiser Permanente Medical Center providing stable jobs in the healthcare sector. This institutional presence bolsters the local tenant pool, offering a degree of economic insulation often sought by landlords holding long-term assets.
Fiscally, the 94509 market presents a tight spread between subsidized and market rates. The FY2026 Fair Market Rent (FMR) for a two-bedroom unit sits at $2,420, while the current market rent (ZORI) is $2,444, creating a negligible gap of $24. Median home values are $541,751, with properties moving briskly at a median of 29 days on market. For investors utilizing vouchers, the math indicates that while standard FMRs cover nearly full market rent, the very low surplus margin offers minimal buffer against maintenance or vacancy, making cash-flow sensitive to unit efficiency.
The tenant demand is underpinned by a solid demographic foundation. With a median household income of $86,196 and a renter share of 42.0%, the area hosts a significant population that cannot yet afford homeownership but maintains steady earnings. This income level suggests that the Section 8 waiting list likely includes working families whose vouchers supplement incomes below the area median, rather than zero-income households. The proximity to major highways and local school districts further sustains demand, as families prioritize the educational amenities and commuter access the East Bay provides.
The Section 8 verdict for Antioch 94509 leans toward stability and appreciation rather than aggressive cash-flow. With the market rent exceeding the FMR by a razor-thin margin, the primary investor angle here is betting on property value growth in a high-demand Bay Area suburb rather than monthly premium spreads. The 29-day turnover rate indicates high liquidity, allowing for quick rent resets upon vacancy. For landlords prioritizing low turnover and long-term asset appreciation in a region with constrained housing supply, this ZIP offers a reliable, albeit yield-conservative, entry point.
Data Sources: FMR data from HUD (2027). Median home prices from Zillow (2026-07-31). Demographics from U.S. Census (2024).
About FMR: Fair Market Rent (FMR) is used to determine payment standards for the Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher program, initial renewal rents for some expiring project-based Section 8 contracts, and rent ceilings for HOME Investment Partnerships.