Section 8 Fair Market Rent (FMR) for ZIP 95307 - 2027

Investment Score for ZIP 95307

Based on 1% Rule: A+ (≥1.5%) | A (≥1.2%) | B (≥1.0%) | C (≥0.8%) | D (≥0.6%) | F (<0.6%)

FY 2027 Fair Market Rent Rates

Unit Size	Monthly FMR
Studio	$1,250
1 Bedroom	$1,350
2 Bedrooms	$1,770
3 Bedrooms	$2,370
4 Bedrooms	$2,780
5 Bedrooms	$3,225
6 Bedrooms	$3,612
7 Bedrooms	$3,901
8 Bedrooms	$4,096

Investment Analysis by Bedroom Size

Zillow median home prices vs Section 8 FMR rates (Data: 2026-08-31)

Bedrooms	Monthly FMR	Median Price	1% Rule	Grade
2BR	$1,770	$354,944	0.5%	F
3BR	$2,370	$428,075	0.55%	F
4BR	$2,780	$498,834	0.56%	F
5BR	$3,225	$598,371	0.54%	F

Demographics & Housing Statistics

U.S. Census Bureau data (2024)

Market Analysis for ZIP Code 95307 (Ceres, CA) 1. **Section 8 Voucher Dynamics** The Fair Market Rent (FMR) for ZIP code 95307 in 2026 is set at $1760 for a two-bedroom unit, which represents 26.2% of the median household income of $80,627. However, the actual rental market price for a two-bedroom unit is significantly higher, with Zillow reporting a median price of $354,097. This indicates that the actual rental prices are approximately 16.8 times the FMR for a two-bedroom unit, suggesting a substantial gap between what the government considers fair rent and the market rate. This gap creates significant constraints for voucher holders. For instance, a tenant with a Section 8 voucher for a two-bedroom unit would only be able to afford units priced at or below $1760 per month. Given the high market rates, finding suitable housing can be challenging. Additionally, landlords may be hesitant to accept vouchers due to the lower rent compared to market rates. 2. **Affordability & Renter Profile** ZIP code 95307 has a population of 46,310, with 33.0% of residents being renters. The occupancy rate is 96.8%, indicating a relatively tight rental market. With the median household income at $80,627, it suggests that while there is a significant portion of the population renting, the overall affordability of housing is strained by the high market prices. Given that 26.2% of the median income is allocated towards a two-bedroom unit, it implies that many renters are likely to be middle-income families who might struggle to find affordable housing without assistance. The high price-to-FMR ratio of 16.8x further underscores the challenge of affordability in this market. 3. **Investor Angle** From an investor perspective, the ZIP code's rental market dynamics present both opportunities and challenges. The FMR for a two-bedroom unit is $1760, but the actual market price is $354,097, which translates to a monthly mortgage payment far exceeding the FMR. Assuming a typical mortgage rate of around 4.5% and a 20% down payment, the monthly mortgage payment on a $354,097 property would be approximately $1600, not including taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs. This means that even if a landlord accepts a Section 8 voucher, they would likely not cover the full cost of ownership. The investment grade for properties in this ZIP code is mixed. While there is a strong demand for rentals, the high market prices relative to FMR make it difficult for investors to achieve positive cash flow solely through Section 8 vouchers. Investors would need to consider additional revenue streams or subsidies to make these investments viable. 4. **Specific Actionable Insights** - **Rent Control Strategy**: Given the high price-to-FMR ratio, landlords should consider offering slightly below-market rents to attract Section 8 voucher holders. For example, setting the rent at $1800 for a two-bedroom unit could still be above FMR but within reach of some voucher holders, potentially increasing occupancy rates. - **Government Subsidies**: Investors should explore additional government subsidies and programs that can help bridge the gap between FMR and market rates. For instance, the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program could provide tax incentives that offset the lower rental income from accepting Section 8 vouchers. 5. **Bottom Line** Based on the provided data, the recommendation for Section 8-focused investors in ZIP code 95307 is to **Skip**. The high market prices relative to FMR indicate that achieving positive cash flow purely through Section 8 vouchers is unlikely. The tight rental market and high occupancy rate suggest that while there is demand, the financial viability of such investments is questionable without additional subsidies or creative financing strategies. In conclusion, while Ceres, CA, presents a robust rental market with a significant number of renters, the financial constraints imposed by the high price-to-FMR ratio make it less attractive for investors focusing exclusively on Section 8 vouchers.

Data Sources: FMR data from HUD (2027). Median home prices from Zillow (2026-08-31). Demographics from U.S. Census (2024).

About FMR: Fair Market Rent (FMR) is used to determine payment standards for the Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher program, initial renewal rents for some expiring project-based Section 8 contracts, and rent ceilings for HOME Investment Partnerships.