Section 8 Fair Market Rent (FMR) for ZIP 95316 - 2027

Location: Modesto, CA | Metro: Merced, CA MSA

Investment Score for ZIP 95316

F
Monthly Rent (2BR)
$1,600
Median Price (2BR)
$424,464
1% Rule
0.38%
Annual Yield
4.52%

Based on 1% Rule: A+ (≥1.5%) | A (≥1.2%) | B (≥1.0%) | C (≥0.8%) | D (≥0.6%) | F (<0.6%)

FY 2027 Fair Market Rent Rates

Unit Size Monthly FMR
Studio$1,130
1 Bedroom$1,230
2 Bedrooms$1,600
3 Bedrooms$2,200
4 Bedrooms$2,550
5 Bedrooms$2,958
6 Bedrooms$3,313
7 Bedrooms$3,578
8 Bedrooms$3,757

Investment Analysis by Bedroom Size

Zillow median home prices vs Section 8 FMR rates (Data: 2026-07-31)

Bedrooms Monthly FMR Median Price 1% Rule Grade
2BR $1,600 $424,464 0.38% F
3BR $2,200 $498,908 0.44% F
4BR $2,550 $613,105 0.42% F
5BR $2,958 $683,692 0.43% F

Demographics & Housing Statistics

U.S. Census Bureau data (2024)

Population
8,022
Median Household Income
$97,764
Housing Units
2,642
Renter Percentage
38.0%
Occupancy Rate
97.1%
Renter Occupied
974

The ZIP code 95316, located in Denair, California, stands out within Stanislaus County due to several key factors. With a population of 8,022 residents, 38.0% of whom rent their homes, it reflects a community where a significant portion of residents are tenants. The median income in this area is $97,764, which is notably higher than many other rural communities in the county. Additionally, the median home value of $551,993 is a distinguishing feature, indicating a relatively affluent neighborhood.

For landlords and small-portfolio investors, the voucher economics in Denair present an interesting opportunity. The Fair Market Rent (FMR) for the ZIP code 95316, set at $1,420 for fiscal year 2024, is slightly below the market rate of $1,438, according to Census ACS data. This suggests that landlords can expect to receive a rental amount close to the market rate when participating in the Section 8 program, making it a viable option for maintaining cash flow without significant loss.

Given the data signature of ZIP 95316, it appears to be a stable area. The high median income and median home value indicate a solid economic foundation, while the relatively low difference between the FMR and market rates suggests a balanced rental market. For investors, this stability means that the risk associated with rental income fluctuations is minimized, providing a reliable investment environment. However, the presence of a substantial rental population also signals ongoing demand for affordable housing solutions, aligning well with the benefits offered by the Section 8 program.

Data Sources: FMR data from HUD (2027). Median home prices from Zillow (2026-07-31). Demographics from U.S. Census (2024).

About FMR: Fair Market Rent (FMR) is used to determine payment standards for the Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher program, initial renewal rents for some expiring project-based Section 8 contracts, and rent ceilings for HOME Investment Partnerships.