Location: Modesto, CA | Metro: Modesto, CA MSA
Based on 1% Rule: A+ (≥1.5%) | A (≥1.2%) | B (≥1.0%) | C (≥0.8%) | D (≥0.6%) | F (<0.6%)
| Unit Size | Monthly FMR |
|---|---|
| Studio | $1,680 |
| 1 Bedroom | $1,810 |
| 2 Bedrooms | $2,370 |
| 3 Bedrooms | $3,170 |
| 4 Bedrooms | $3,720 |
| 5 Bedrooms | $4,315 |
| 6 Bedrooms | $4,833 |
| 7 Bedrooms | $5,220 |
| 8 Bedrooms | $5,481 |
Zillow median home prices vs Section 8 FMR rates (Data: 2026-08-31)
| Bedrooms | Monthly FMR | Median Price | 1% Rule | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2BR | $2,370 | $468,257 | 0.51% | F |
| 3BR | $3,170 | $467,876 | 0.68% | D |
| 4BR | $3,720 | $512,069 | 0.73% | D |
| 5BR | $4,315 | $608,058 | 0.71% | D |
U.S. Census Bureau data (2024)
The real estate landscape in ZIP 95357 (Modesto, CA) is characterized by a median home value of $507,793. This figure is a key indicator of the overall market health and suggests that homeowners have a significant amount of equity in their properties. The fact that only 0.1% of listings have been reduced further underscores the strength of the sellers' market, implying that there is little pressure on property owners to lower their asking prices.
The median days on market (DOM) being listed as N/A can be interpreted in two ways: either the market is so robust that homes are selling very quickly, or there is limited data available due to the low volume of transactions. Given the context of the other data points, it's reasonable to assume the former, indicating a strong demand for housing in Modesto. This quick turnover supports the notion that landlords and small-portfolio investors will continue to enjoy pricing power over the next 12-24 months. Homeowners are unlikely to accept lower offers, and rental rates can remain competitive without significant downward adjustments.
On the rental side, the Fair Market Rent (FMR) for ZIP 95357 in fiscal year 2024 is set at $1,920, while the current market rent stands at $2,028 according to the Census ACS. This slight premium of $108 over the FMR indicates that rental properties are currently fetching slightly above average rates, which is favorable for landlords. However, it also suggests that there is limited room for substantial increases in rent, given the close alignment with the FMR.
For long-hold investors, the realistic appreciation thesis is modest. With the median home value already at a considerable level and the minimal reduction in listing prices, any future appreciation is likely to be incremental rather than exponential. Investors should expect steady growth, driven by factors such as inflation and gradual economic improvements, but should not anticipate rapid capital gains.
To summarize, the current data points towards a stable market with strong seller and landlord pricing power. Landlords can maintain current rents with some flexibility for minor increases, while small-portfolio investors should focus on steady appreciation rather than speculative gains. This setup is ideal for those seeking long-term, consistent returns in Modesto, CA.
Data Sources: FMR data from HUD (2027). Median home prices from Zillow (2026-08-31). Demographics from U.S. Census (2024).
About FMR: Fair Market Rent (FMR) is used to determine payment standards for the Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher program, initial renewal rents for some expiring project-based Section 8 contracts, and rent ceilings for HOME Investment Partnerships.