Section 8 Fair Market Rent (FMR) for ZIP 95386 - 2027

Location: Modesto, CA | Metro: Modesto, CA MSA

Investment Score for ZIP 95386

F
Monthly Rent (2BR)
$1,780
Median Price (2BR)
$356,462
1% Rule
0.5%
Annual Yield
5.99%

Based on 1% Rule: A+ (≥1.5%) | A (≥1.2%) | B (≥1.0%) | C (≥0.8%) | D (≥0.6%) | F (<0.6%)

FY 2027 Fair Market Rent Rates

Unit Size Monthly FMR
Studio$1,260
1 Bedroom$1,360
2 Bedrooms$1,780
3 Bedrooms$2,380
4 Bedrooms$2,790
5 Bedrooms$3,236
6 Bedrooms$3,624
7 Bedrooms$3,914
8 Bedrooms$4,110

Investment Analysis by Bedroom Size

Zillow median home prices vs Section 8 FMR rates (Data: 2026-07-31)

Bedrooms Monthly FMR Median Price 1% Rule Grade
2BR $1,780 $356,462 0.5% F
3BR $2,380 $414,632 0.57% F
4BR $2,790 $477,226 0.58% F
5BR $3,236 $545,865 0.59% F

Demographics & Housing Statistics

U.S. Census Bureau data (2024)

Population
10,666
Median Household Income
$73,196
Housing Units
3,273
Renter Percentage
42.6%
Occupancy Rate
94.4%
Renter Occupied
1,317

The economics of Section 8 in ZIP 95386 (Waterford, CA, Stanislaus County) are straightforward. The SAFMR (Section 8 Area Fair Market Rent) for a two-bedroom apartment is set at $1460 for fiscal year 2024. This SAFMR is specifically tailored for this ZIP code, ensuring it reflects the local housing market conditions accurately.

In contrast, the local market rent for a two-bedroom unit averages $1,593 according to the latest Census ACS data. This indicates that landlords in ZIP 95386 may face a slight challenge in covering their rental costs solely through the Section 8 program.

A voucher payment under Section 8 consists of two parts: the tenant's portion and the utility allowance. Landlords receive a reimbursement from the government based on the SAFMR, which is capped at $1460 for a two-bedroom unit in this ZIP code. Tenants typically contribute 30% of their adjusted income towards rent, while the remainder is covered by the voucher.

The utility allowance is a fixed amount intended to cover the cost of utilities such as electricity, gas, water, and sewer. This allowance varies but is generally modest. For instance, if the utility allowance is $300, the total reimbursement a landlord might expect would be $1760 ($1460 rent + $300 utilities).

However, since the local market rent is higher at $1,593, the reimbursement gap emerges when comparing the SAFMR to the actual market rates. In this case, the gap is $133 per month ($1593 - $1460), meaning landlords will receive less than the market rent for a two-bedroom apartment. To summarize, landlords should anticipate a reimbursement of $1460 for rent plus any applicable utility allowances, resulting in a shortfall of $133 against the local market rent.

Data Sources: FMR data from HUD (2027). Median home prices from Zillow (2026-07-31). Demographics from U.S. Census (2024).

About FMR: Fair Market Rent (FMR) is used to determine payment standards for the Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher program, initial renewal rents for some expiring project-based Section 8 contracts, and rent ceilings for HOME Investment Partnerships.