Section 8 Fair Market Rent (FMR) for ZIP 95648 - 2027

Investment Score for ZIP 95648

Based on 1% Rule: A+ (≥1.5%) | A (≥1.2%) | B (≥1.0%) | C (≥0.8%) | D (≥0.6%) | F (<0.6%)

FY 2027 Fair Market Rent Rates

Unit Size	Monthly FMR
Studio	$2,070
1 Bedroom	$2,130
2 Bedrooms	$2,620
3 Bedrooms	$3,440
4 Bedrooms	$3,960
5 Bedrooms	$4,594
6 Bedrooms	$5,145
7 Bedrooms	$5,557
8 Bedrooms	$5,835

Investment Analysis by Bedroom Size

Zillow median home prices vs Section 8 FMR rates (Data: 2026-08-31)

Bedrooms	Monthly FMR	Median Price	1% Rule	Grade
1BR	$2,130	$443,903	0.48%	F
2BR	$2,620	$632,005	0.41%	F
3BR	$3,440	$572,877	0.6%	D
4BR	$3,960	$665,692	0.59%	F
5BR	$4,594	$772,866	0.59%	F

Demographics & Housing Statistics

U.S. Census Bureau data (2024)

### Market Analysis for ZIP Code 95648 (Lincoln, CA) #### Section 8 Voucher Dynamics The Fair Market Rent (FMR) for ZIP code 95648, as set by HUD for 2026, is $2780 for a two-bedroom unit. This figure represents 29.7% of the median household income of $112,333 in Lincoln, CA. However, it is important to note that the actual rent for a two-bedroom unit in this area is significantly higher, with Zillow reporting a median price of $632,869. The price-to-FMR ratio of 19.0x indicates that the actual market rent far exceeds the FMR. This dynamic presents several constraints for voucher holders. For instance, a tenant using a Section 8 voucher would struggle to find a landlord willing to accept a rent of $2780 when the market value is nearly $632,869. Landlords may be hesitant to participate in the program due to the low rent relative to market rates. Additionally, the high cost of living in the area could make it difficult for voucher holders to afford other necessities even if they manage to secure housing. #### Affordability & Renter Profile The population of Lincoln, CA, is 57,459, with 15.7% being renters. This suggests a relatively small rental market compared to the overall population. The occupancy rate of 96.1% indicates that the rental market is quite tight, with very few vacant units available. Given the high median household income and the significant disparity between the FMR and actual market rents, it is likely that the typical renter in this area has a higher income level than the average voucher holder. The tight market conditions mean that landlords have less incentive to lower their rents to meet the FMR standards. This could lead to a situation where many voucher holders are unable to find suitable housing, exacerbating the affordability issue. Furthermore, the limited supply of rental properties means that competition among potential tenants is fierce, which can drive up rents even further. #### Investor Angle From an investor perspective, the ZIP code 95648 is not cash-flow positive at the FMR levels. With the FMR for a two-bedroom unit at $2780 and the median market rent at $632,869, it is clear that the actual rent far exceeds what a Section 8 voucher can cover. This makes it challenging for investors to achieve profitability through the Section 8 program alone. Given the high market rents and the tight occupancy rate, the investment grade for this ZIP code would be considered low for Section 8-focused investors. The primary reason is the difficulty in finding tenants who can only pay the FMR amount, especially when the market is so competitive and rents are so high. Investors might need to consider alternative strategies, such as targeting a broader range of tenants or offering non-Section 8 rental options. #### Specific Actionable Insights 1. **Target Non-Section 8 Tenants**: Given the high market rents and the limited number of voucher holders who can afford the FMR, investors should focus on attracting tenants who can pay market rates. This would involve setting rents closer to the Zillow median of $632,869 for a two-bedroom unit, rather than the FMR of $2780. 2. **Consider Mixed-Income Developments**: To balance the need for affordable housing with the realities of the high-cost market, investors might explore mixed-income developments. This approach involves offering a mix of market-rate and subsidized units, allowing the higher rents to subsidize the lower ones. For example, a development could include a few units priced at the FMR of $2780 while the majority are priced at the market rate of $632,869. 3. **Engage with Local Housing Authorities**: Since the local rental market is so tight, engaging with local housing authorities to understand the demand for Section 8 vouchers and any potential subsidies or incentives they offer could be beneficial. This could help investors identify areas where there is a higher concentration of voucher holders and tailor their offerings accordingly. #### Bottom Line Based on the analysis, the recommendation for Section 8-focused investors in ZIP code 95648 is to **skip** this market. The high market rents and tight occupancy rate make it difficult to find tenants who can only pay the FMR. Additionally, the limited number of renters in the area and the high cost of living suggest that the demand for affordable housing is not sufficient to support a profitable Section 8 investment strategy. Investors should consider markets with lower market rents and higher concentrations of voucher holders for better returns.

Data Sources: FMR data from HUD (2027). Median home prices from Zillow (2026-08-31). Demographics from U.S. Census (2024).

About FMR: Fair Market Rent (FMR) is used to determine payment standards for the Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher program, initial renewal rents for some expiring project-based Section 8 contracts, and rent ceilings for HOME Investment Partnerships.